BTC To Retire
Bitcoin $1 Million Probability Analysis
Multi-model analysis of Bitcoin's path to $1,000,000 using Power Law, Stock-to-Flow, Metcalfe's Law, and statistical modeling
This tool analyzes the probability and timeline for Bitcoin reaching $1 million using multiple mathematical models including Power Law, Stock-to-Flow, Metcalfe's Law, and Log-Normal Distribution.
Select Models to Analyze
Probability Analysis Results
Projected Timeline to Target Price
Probability Distribution by Year
Monte Carlo Simulation Results
Methodology & Assumptions
Power Law Model
Uses the formula: Price = A ร (days since genesis)^n ร percentile multiplier. Parameters from Santostasi & Perrenod (April 2026): A = 3.10ร10โปยนโท, n = 5.690 ยฑ 0.005, Rยฒ = 0.961, ฯ = 0.302 dex over 5,696 daily observations (Jul 2010 โ Feb 2026).
Stock-to-Flow Model
Based on Bitcoin's scarcity, calculating the ratio of existing supply to annual production. Assumes halvings continue every 4 years.
Metcalfe's Law
Network value proportional to the square of active users. Uses on-chain address growth as a proxy for user adoption.
Log-Normal Distribution
Statistical model assuming Bitcoin returns follow a log-normal distribution based on historical mean return and volatility.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Runs thousands of random price paths using geometric Brownian motion to estimate probability distributions.
This calculator is for educational purposes only and doesn't represent financial advice. You might want to consult with financial and tax professionals before making decisions.