BTC To Retire
Bitcoin vs S&P 500 Comparison
Historical performance analysis for informed investment decisions
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Bitcoin Price
Current market price
$0
S&P 500 Index
Current index value
0
📊 Annual Returns (CAGR)
⚡ Volatility
📉 Max Drawdown
Historical Price Performance (Normalized to $1,000)
Annual Returns Comparison
Year-by-year performance breakdown
| Year | Bitcoin Return | S&P 500 Return | Difference |
|---|
📈 Growth of $10,000 Investment
💡 Key Insights
Bitcoin Advantages
- • Significantly higher returns over long periods
- • Hedge against currency debasement
- • Limited supply (21M coins)
S&P 500 Advantages
- • More stable, lower volatility
- • Diversified across companies
- • Established regulatory framework
Portfolio Consideration
Many investors allocate a small percentage (5-10%) to Bitcoin as a hedge while keeping the majority in traditional assets.
📊 MicroStrategy (MSTR) as a "BTC Proxy" — buyer beware
Pension cautionaryMSTR is the most-watched Bitcoin treasury company. Holding MSTR is NOT equivalent to holding BTC — it's a leveraged BTC bet with a market-NAV premium that can collapse, share dilution drag from continual at-the-market issuance, and corporate-action risk.
Strategy's Bitcoin treasury (April 2026)
- BTC held:
- ~818,334 BTC
- Average cost basis:
- ~$75,537
- NAV at $80K BTC:
- ~$65.5B
Source: April 2026 disclosures; figures approximate.
Pension fund underwater (April 2026)
- US state pension funds holding MSTR:
- ~11
- Combined shares held:
- ~1.8M
- Combined paper losses:
- ~$337M
Sources: DLNews, TheStreet (Apr 2026).
⚠️ Premium decay (mNAV)
MSTR has historically traded at 1.5×–3× NAV. When that premium compresses to 1×, the stock falls even if BTC is flat. The "free leverage" disappears.
⚠️ Dilution drag
Strategy continuously issues new shares to acquire more BTC. Each issuance increases BTC-per-share if priced above NAV — but dilutes existing holders if priced near or below NAV.
⚠️ Corporate / regulatory risk
Tax events, debt-funding decisions, custody changes, and the actions of one CEO can move the price in ways spot BTC never would.
For retirement planning: if your goal is BTC exposure, spot BTC (or a regulated spot ETF) tracks the asset directly. MSTR adds leverage AND idiosyncratic risk — worth understanding before substituting it as a "convenient" alternative.
This calculator is for educational purposes only and doesn't represent financial advice. You might want to consult with financial and tax professionals before making decisions.