BTC To Retire

Tax-Aware Bitcoin Retirement

Account-type sequencing for taxable, Traditional IRA, and Roth IRA Bitcoin holdings

Methodology — Federal tax model (v3, 2026 IRS/OBBBA)

Account sequencing: Pre-59.5 = non-Roth first (taxable LTCG → Traditional ordinary + 10% penalty), then Roth ordinary + 10% penalty. Post-59.5 = proportional with appropriate per-account rates; qualified Roth tax-free.
LTCG brackets: 0% / 15% / 20% federal (2026 thresholds: 0% up to $49,450 single / $98,900 MFJ), stacked on top of ordinary income.
Ordinary income: 7-bracket progressive (10/12/22/24/32/35/37%) using 2026 IRS thresholds. OBBBA made the TCJA rate structure permanent.
NIIT: 3.8% applied to LTCG above $200K (single) / $250K (MFJ) MAGI threshold.
RMDs: IRS Uniform Lifetime Table forces Traditional IRA distributions starting at age 73.

Federal-only model. Not modeled: state tax, Roth 5-year conversion clock, 72(t) SEPP, wash-sale on Bitcoin ETFs, charitable remainder trusts, lot-level cost-basis tracking. Bracket thresholds use IRS 2026 inflation adjustments; verify current IRS publications before relying on the numbers. This calculator is for educational illustration, not tax advice.

Power-Law Centerline —

Spot vs. Trend —

🧾 Plan Inputs

Holdings, ages, and tax assumptions

Current Age

Retirement Age

Plan To Age

Taxable BTC

Personal wallet (LTCG on gain)

Traditional IRA BTC

Distributions taxed as ordinary; RMDs at 73

Roth IRA BTC

Qualified post-59.5 withdrawals tax-free

Taxable BTC Cost Basis (USD per BTC)

Average cost per BTC across taxable lots — used for LTCG gain

Filing Status

Drives federal LTCG, ordinary brackets, NIIT thresholds (2026)

Annual Expenses (today's $)

Other Ordinary Income

SS, pension, etc. — stacks before LTCG

Inflation (%/yr)

Power Law Percentile

Roth Conversion — Per Year (USD)

Move this much from Traditional → Roth each year, paying ordinary income tax. Set to 0 to skip.

Stop Converting After Age

Default 72 — the year before RMDs begin at 73, when the bracket-fill window closes.

Monte Carlo — Expected BTC CAGR (%)

Long-run mean for the stress test. Default 15% — conservative vs the 27% trailing 8-yr CAGR.

Stress test methodology: 1,000 paths, block bootstrap on 2018-2026 monthly BTC returns (preserves volatility clustering and fat tails), 12-month blocks, mean-adjusted to your CAGR target. Volatility structure preserved from real history.

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📊 Summary

Projected outcome under selected sequencing rule

Years Modeled

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Cumulative Tax Paid

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Ending Balance (USD)

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Depletion Status

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🎲 Monte Carlo Stress Test

Probability that this plan survives the planning horizon under realistic BTC volatility (1,000 paths, block bootstrap on 2018-2026 returns)

— success rate

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Block bootstrap preserves BTC's volatility clustering and fat tails — naive Gaussian Monte Carlo would overstate this success rate. See the methodology callout at the top of the page for what's modeled.

P10 ending balance

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Worst 10% of paths

P50 ending balance

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Median path

P90 ending balance

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Best 10% of paths

⚡ Sequence-of-Returns Stress Test

What if a -70% Bitcoin drawdown hits in year 2 of retirement (the worst time to be down)? BTC's three largest historical drawdowns were -83%, -77%, -73%.

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success rate under shock

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📈 Stack Projection

Total wealth (USD) and annual flows over the planning horizon

📋 Year-by-Year (every other year shown)

Phase, BTC price, expenses, tax paid, balances

Year	Age	Phase	BTC Price	Expenses	Tax	Total BTC	Total USD

This calculator is for educational purposes only and doesn't represent financial advice. You might want to consult with financial and tax professionals before making decisions.