🧾 Tax-Aware Bitcoin Retirement

Account-type sequencing for taxable, Traditional IRA, and Roth IRA Bitcoin holdings

Methodology — Federal tax model (v3, post-TCJA-sunset 2026)
  • Account sequencing: Pre-59.5 = non-Roth first (taxable LTCG → Traditional ordinary + 10% penalty), then Roth ordinary + 10% penalty. Post-59.5 = proportional with appropriate per-account rates; qualified Roth tax-free.
  • LTCG brackets: 0% / 15% / 20% federal (2026 thresholds: 0% up to $49,450 single / $98,900 MFJ), stacked on top of ordinary income.
  • Ordinary income: 7-bracket progressive (10/15/25/28/33/35/39.6%) — TCJA sunset effective Jan 1, 2026 restored pre-2018 rates. Top rate is 39.6% (was 37% under TCJA).
  • NIIT: 3.8% applied to LTCG above $200K (single) / $250K (MFJ) MAGI threshold.
  • RMDs: IRS Uniform Lifetime Table forces Traditional IRA distributions starting at age 73.

Federal-only model. Not modeled: state tax, Roth 5-year conversion clock, 72(t) SEPP, wash-sale on Bitcoin ETFs, charitable remainder trusts, lot-level cost-basis tracking. Bracket thresholds are 2026 estimates; verify with IRS publications before relying on the numbers. This calculator is for educational illustration, not tax advice.

Power-Law Centerline —
Spot vs. Trend —

🧾 Plan Inputs

Holdings, ages, and tax assumptions

Personal wallet (LTCG on gain)

Distributions taxed as ordinary; RMDs at 73

Qualified post-59.5 withdrawals tax-free

Average cost per BTC across taxable lots — used for LTCG gain

Drives federal LTCG, ordinary brackets, NIIT thresholds (2025)

SS, pension, etc. — stacks before LTCG

Long-run mean for the stress test. Default 15% — conservative vs the 27% trailing 8-yr CAGR.

Stress test methodology: 1,000 paths, block bootstrap on 2018-2026 monthly BTC returns (preserves volatility clustering and fat tails), 12-month blocks, mean-adjusted to your CAGR target. Volatility structure preserved from real history.

📊 Summary

Projected outcome under selected sequencing rule

Years Modeled
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Cumulative Tax Paid
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Ending Balance (USD)
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Depletion Status
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🎲 Monte Carlo Stress Test

Probability that this plan survives the planning horizon under realistic BTC volatility (1,000 paths, block bootstrap on 2018-2026 returns)

— success rate

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Block bootstrap preserves BTC's volatility clustering and fat tails — naive Gaussian Monte Carlo would overstate this success rate. See the methodology callout at the top of the page for what's modeled.

P10 ending balance
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Worst 10% of paths
P50 ending balance
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Median path
P90 ending balance
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Best 10% of paths

📈 Stack Projection

Total wealth (USD) and annual flows over the planning horizon

📋 Year-by-Year (every other year shown)

Phase, BTC price, expenses, tax paid, balances

Year Age Phase BTC Price Expenses Tax Total BTC Total USD

This calculator is for educational purposes only and doesn't represent financial advice. You might want to consult with financial and tax professionals before making decisions. Sometimes they don't know shit tough so you might...stay humble and stack sats.